It may seem strange but a precursor to a ceasefire is often a spike in the actual fighting on the battlefield and that is exactly what is happening in eastern Ukraine.
Both the government and rebel forces are engaged in what are effectively land grabs as the expectation of some type of deal being reached in Minsk draws nearer.
There may of course be no deal or not one that lasts too long, so it sort of makes sense for the protagonists to go at each other "hammer and tongs" as the countdown begins.
If you are sheltering in a Soviet-era block of flats while grad rockets land in your neighbourhood it might not feel like it makes any sense at all.
There has been a ceasefire deal of course. It was agreed in September last year and brought around a period of some stability rather than an actual end to the fighting. Both sides took the opportunity to strengthen their positions though and as the year began the hostilities grew more intense and finally flared into the current state of war once again.
The key question is whether the leaders of Ukraine, France, Germany and, of course, Russia can come up with a renewed plan acceptable to everyone.
In essence, the formula for the peace deal would be an immediate ceasefire; after that its starts getting more tricky.
A wide demilitarised zone on both sides of the front line and monitored by international observers is being proposed with a similar observer corp on the proper Ukrainian/Russian border.
Heavy weapons would be withdrawn by both sides and prisoners exchanged in the ensuing peace.
Ukraine would maintain its territorial integrity but the Kiev government would give greater autonomy to the local governments of Donetsk and Luhansk.
All of the above agreements would be acceptable to all sides as well as the countries watching in. The problem is that the details aren't just sticking points - they could be game changers.
To begin with, exactly where is the demilitarised zone and the "border" with western Ukraine? Since the September treaty, the rebels have taken more ground and want to keep it. Ukraine wants it back.
What constitutes heavy weapons and will some of the rebels' suspiciously new bits of kit return across the border to Russia from whence it came?
What about those rebels who everyone acknowledges are Russian? Sent by the Kremlin or not, Ukraine says they have to go home.
What will be the status of the newly empowered rebel-held regions? Ukraine wants to remain the government of the whole country. The rebels and Russia, to all intents and purposes, want these areas to be autonomous although remaining within Ukraine to act as a veto for any future attempts by Kiev to strengthen its ties to Europe.
What happens to Crimea is probably way too toxic for these talks and will probably be set aside and put in the "just don't go there" bin for now.
So if all these issues have been addressed and everyone sticks to their side of the bargain a permanent peace is imminent.
However, I wouldn't bet on it.
Both sides have said they will strengthen their positions and prepare for a greater escalation in the war if no deal is reached. Regardless, one must expect them to strengthen their positions and prepare for war anyway; it just might be further back than the current front lines.
What the local population can hope for is a ceasefire and a return to a sort of peace. Most agree that they want the fighting to stop and it all to go away. While many support the Kiev side, many also distrust Kiev, won't forgive attacks by government troops on their towns and are fearful of revenge by the substantial right-wing militias that make up Ukraine's "Civil Defence" forces.
A year on, Ukraine remains bitterly divided and riven with complex ideological, social and geographical problems.
A Minsk deal won't solve these problems but it might halt the killing; for a while.
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