US Creeps To Decision On Islamic State Threat

Washington has crept to a decision. It's time to do something about the threat posed by the Islamic State.

There's now no lack of senior officials describing the problem.

"This is an organisation that has an apocalyptic, end-of-days strategic vision and which will eventually have to be defeated," General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said.

"They are beyond just a terrorist group. They marry ideology, a sophistication of ... military prowess. They are tremendously well-funded. This is beyond anything we've seen," said his boss Chuck Hagel, the US Secretary of Defence.

But how do you solve a problem on this scale?

Militarily there may be a short term effect from intensifying American airstrikes.

Car used by IS fighters is destoyed in a US airstrike

Widening the target list of IS forces across Iraq to include vulnerable areas on the edge of the Kurdish region and around Baghdad would at least stem the tide.

It might also buy some time for specialists to re-train the Iraqi army and for the central government to form a more inclusive administration involving Sunnis who for now may be supporting the IS.

But rolling back the IS in Iraq would take a much bigger air campaign.

That would risk killing Sunnis and painting the Baghdad government as lackeys of American imperialism.

And pushing IS back in Iraq would still leave its Syrian heartland as a base from which to continue to launch attacks, as well as terror operations beyond its borders.

Red shows areas controlled by IS, yellow shows areas of fighting

"To your question, can they be defeated without addressing that part of their organisation which resides in Syria? The answer is no. That will have to be addressed on both sides of what is essentially at this point a non-existent border," General Dempsey said.

So airstrikes against IS in Syria may be called for - even if this risks empowering the Damascus regime.

Syria has complex air defence systems. If it did not approve of the attacks on its enemy, IS, then these would need to be destroyed to allow for an effective air campaign against the Islamic state.

A rapidly widening air war could lead to more complexities on the ground.

Amid all the talk of attacking IS, many ordinary people, voters, in the West may favour a 'leave-well-alone' policy.

With the US and UK political elite facing elections next year this view may concentrate their minds on sitting on their hands.

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