How Long Can The ISIS 'Caliphate' Survive?
Updated: 1:26pm UK, Monday 30 June 2014
By Tim Marshall, Diplomatic Editor
The ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, appears to have declared that the area in which his fighters have nominal control is a "state".
If that is the case it is not a state as the modern world recognises the concept, nor is it likely to survive.
As for the declaration that al Baghdadi is now "leader for Muslims everywhere", that is a mixture of delusions of grandeur and tragicomedy.
The chances of al Baghdadi developing a flourishing empire akin to the glory days of the Umayyad dynasty are negligible.
ISIS, or the "Islamic State" as it now calls itself, is more likely to partially control a handful of urban areas, and a lot of sand, for a relatively limited period.
The borders drawn by the colonial powers in the early 20th century are being eroded, but the map of the "state" declared by ISIS is unlikely to be what replaces them.
Inside this area is Iraq's second city - Mosul. This would be the de facto capital of the caliphate until such time as Baghdad is conquered, although that is unlikely.
Other urban areas include Fallujah and parts of Ramadi and Tikrit. ISIS already "taxes" residents and businessmen in these towns, and has a healthy income from bank raids, but does not have the experience, or ability to govern a state.
Citizens of this caliphate would struggle to prosper given that trade would be limited in what would remain a war zone. There are oil fields in the area ISIS claims, but none are functioning, nor likely to as long as ISIS remains a power in the region. There is an oil refinery at Baiji, but if ISIS was to genuinely control the facility the Iraqi government might not wish to send oil there to be refined.
None of the above is to seek to diminish the threat ISIS poses to the whole region. It has already set up a base for suicide missions into Lebanon as it seeks to extend its authority, but the group has not yet won the war, only a few battles.
To the north and northeast the Kurds have begun to fight ISIS. To the south the Iraqi military is beginning to solidify.
Iran is sending expertise and equipment to help the government as are the Americans who are thought to be now delivering the first batch of Hellfire missiles. The Russians have delivered several fighter jets which will severely limit the ability of ISIS to manoeuvre.
ISIS also has enemies within the Sunni community.
Al Baghdadi's call for all Muslims to swear allegiance to him may be greeted with laughter by many Muslims around the world; but in Iraq it is no laughing matter. The ISIS declaration is a direct challenge to the authority of the Sunni tribal leaders, many of whom are either already opposed to ISIS, or will turn on the group as soon as some sort of compromise can be reached with the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad.
When the first Muslims conquered and colonised the wider Middle East to create the first caliphate there was little organised opposition to stop them. Fourteen centuries on, ISIS faces strong opponents from within and without Islam.
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