The Calculus Of Conflict For Hamas
Updated: 3:54pm UK, Wednesday 09 July 2014
By Sam Kiley, Foreign Affairs Editor
In the morbid calculus of conflict between Israel and Palestinian militants, both sides are drawing satisfaction from the recent bout of violence.
Hamas and its allies will be delighted to know that some 3.5 million Israelis have been added to their potential target list with the launching of long-range rockets which have landed close to Haifa, over 100 miles north.
The Israelis have mobilised 40,000 troops and are systematically smashing Hamas' military infrastructure with scores of air raids and naval bombardments every day.
It's clear this is now seen as the opportunity for Israel to rid the region of Hamas.
Mark Regev, the Israeli spokesman, told Sky News: "Our strategic goal is ultimately defensive. We want to end rocket attacks not just on southern Israel (as) rockets hit further north."
He added: "Over the last few years, Hamas has built up, in Gaza, a formidable terrorist machine. We're now acting to dismantle that machine".
Mr Regev went on to confirm there were no realistic diplomatic avenues to explore and that Israel was escalating its military operations to "once and for all" destroy Hamas' military capabilities.
Hamas will take a nihilistic satisfaction from this explicit threat.
It is opposed to the existence of the Jewish State.
It recently agreed to form a technocratic government with the Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas, which includes no Hamas members but is a 'technocratic administration'.
Facing declining popularity and economic ruin in Gaza, Hamas will now claim that an attack on it is an attack on all Palestinians.
So a ground invasion is just what a movement, which specialises in suicide attacks, most relishes.
It would be an opportunity for volunteers to ascend to paradise while taking enemy soldiers to "hell".
Israel must know that a ground assault might offer it the opportunity to destroy Hamas, blow up its honeycomb of tunnels beneath Gaza and blow up the vast stockpiles of missiles the militant group is believed to have.
But there is a risk of counter attack from the rear.
The West Bank is already close to a third uprising against Israel.
There were already fears that Israel's mass arrests, house demolitions and the killings of several Palestinians following the murder of three Jewish settler youths near Hebron would trigger a new intifada.
So far, the Palestinian Authority has managed to keep a lid on a wider insurrection but at the cost of being seen as collaborating with Israel in an occupation which shows no sign of ending after the collapse of peace talks earlier this year.
If Israel makes good on its threat to "dismantle" Hamas, Palestinians on the West Bank may rise up.
Or, less likely but now conceivable, the Palestinian Authority may seize a moment of Israeli distraction to dissolve itself, forcing Israel to effectively re-occupy the cities handed over to Palestinian control and turn the clock back over 20 years of largely fruitless negotiation.
A move like that would be a gamble and appear a fatal blow to long-term peace.
It could also be seen as the drastic measure needed to focus the calculations of both sides beyond narrow equations in the conflict.
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