Muslim Brotherhood's Future
Updated: 2:29pm UK, Thursday 04 July 2013
Some 300 leaders rounded up, gone into hiding or facing travel bans; its Supreme Guide and his deputy labelled as wanted men - Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood is reeling and leaderless.
Why, then, would Adli Mansour, the new Egyptian president, reach out to it, saying that it is "invited to take part in political life - they should not be excluded"?
Oddly enough, there is nothing inconsistent about such inconsistencies.
The Supreme Council for the Armed Forces, headed by the man who led the coup against former president Mohamed Morsi, is made up of officers who have spent their careers being indoctrinated with the view that the Brotherhood is a dangerous threat to the Egyptian state.
So rounding up its members, just like they did under Hosni Mubarak and his predecessors as far back as 1954 when the Brotherhood was banned, comes easily.
But the caretaker president knows that the movement is the most effective and widely spread political group in Egypt.
The Brotherhood, even driven underground, will remain a potent if not the most potent force in Egyptian politics.
It has renounced violence. So, although there were bloodcurdling references as the coup unfolded to members being prepared to die to protect the presidency, they chose instead to wait and see what would happen.
So far, what they have seen has frightened them.
"We have gone back to the days of Mubarak. People have gone underground, they are afraid that they will lose their jobs or face persecution, be jailed without charge - just like in the old days," said a Brotherhood activist who said he was in hiding and asked to remain anonymous.
"We don't know what to do next. Our leaders have been silenced and our communities don't know whether they should take to the streets, try to win the next election, or start fighting," he added.
More extreme groups from the Islamic firmament - such as the Dawa movement of Salafists who are dedicated to establishing strict Sharia law - have abandoned the Brotherhood.
Dawa may see an opportunity in the Brotherhood's dark hours to pick up followers. Its members have been ordered to stay away from demonstrations and return to their homes so they can be distinguished from Mr Morsi's supporters.
Such a calculation is unlikely to prove sound - Dawa is more likely to be seen as a sell-out.
The Brotherhood leaders have been in jail before but the movement has survived.
Come the elections promised by the new incumbent in the presidential palace, the movement can expect a strong showing - that is if it's really going to be invited back to Egypt's political party.
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